what will happen when the alpine fault goes

Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. It is the boundary between the Pacific … He hoped public pressure on the Government would result in action. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." Movement on the Alpine Fault. The Alpine Fault How scientists study the fault Scientists documented 24 regular M8 quakes along the fault over the last 8,000 years, averaging every 330 years. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. The average slip rates in the fault's central region are abo… But good behaviour, in a scientific sense, may not bring much comfort to South Islanders. The opposite sides have slid sideways past each other for 480 kilometres over the last 15–20 million years, separating rocks that were originally joined together. The shaking in Christchurch, as some below have identified, will be slow and rolly, you will not reach the intensity that the greendale sequence did and definitely not Feb 22 levels. Civil Defence recommends preparing essential emergency items, including: - Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging torch. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. The last time it did this was in 1717, when it produced about 8m of horizontal movement. Potentially there are a lot of things that can happen when and how the Alpine fault goes. / Learning The extent of damage would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the land and how vulnerable it was to liquefaction. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. It shows a rupture starting at the southern end of the Southern Alps and moving north toward Wellington. Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault, which runs for 650km along the spine of the Southern Alps, produces an earthquake of about magnitude 8 on average every 330 years. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. While we can’t predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes. It would be more of a rolling motion for people in Christchurch, because of their distance away from the fault, he said. Landslides would close major highways for up to six months, isolating communities and limiting food supplies across the South Island in the event of an Alpine Fault rupture. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. By analysing sediment deposited at two sites in Fiordland – John O’Groats and Hokuri Creek – during previous earthquakes, scientists have established that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times over the last 8000 years. McFadgen, B.G. It could cause horizontal movement of up to eight metres. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. Right now, we've had an extremely large earthquake that has occurred near the Hope Fault and many other larger faults that feed into the Alpine Fault. and Goff, J. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." A mega magnitude eight earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault will likely happen in the lifetime of many New Zealanders alive today, scientists warn. Since the fault has major earthquakes about every 330 years, and the most recent one was 295 years ago, it’s likely to go … . The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. Horizontal movement of the Alpine Fault is about 30m per 1000 years — very fast by global standards. The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. * When, not if: Alpine fault could cause 8 metres of movement GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. The damaging Christchurch earthquakes ranged from magnitude 4.9 to 7.1 but what will happen when the Alpine fault goes and produces an 8, similar to the ’quakes in Japan? The Alpine Fault stretches for hundreds of miles (kilometres) like a spine along New Zealand's South Island. "If you're living on land that doesn't liquefy, then an Alpine Fault earthquake is unlikely to cause damage to your home in Christchurch," he said. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast moving North and Canterbury and Otagomoving South. 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